The impact of Dr Mahathir's resignation from UMNO

The impact of Dr Mahathir’s resignation from Umno
Source
Malaysia Today
http://www.malaysia-today.net/2008/content/view/7764/84/
Wednesday, 21 May 2008
It really doesn’t matter, I mean the way Umno works is that the people who decide on the Prime Ministership is probably a group of less than 2500 people, basically we’re talking about the Umno divisional heads and the delegates to the Umno convention.

Radio Singapore International

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has announced his immediate resignation from the United Malays National Organisation or Umno yesterday.

He made the decision in protest over Abdullah Badawi’s continued leadership as both the Prime Minister and President of the ruling Umno party.

Mr Abdullah Badawi has responded that he will not be stepping down.

Mahathir was at the helm of Malaysian politics and the dominant Umno party for more than two decades until 2003 when he handed power to Abdullah Badawi.

The departure of the long serving former Umno leader came amid uncertain and volatile times in the Malay party after it lost much support during the country’s 12th general elections in March.

To get a reaction on the latest twist in the Malaysian political landscape, Saifulbahri Ismail spoke with Professor James Chin (JC), political analyst from Monash University, Malaysian campus.

He wasn’t too surprised at Mahathir’s resignation :

JC : I think since about 2005, Dr Mahathir has been attacking the Prime Minister consistently especially on his leadership qualities and the attacks increased after the defeat of the Barisan Nasional in March 2008. I think what happened was that Dr Mahathir came to realize that it is not possible to remove the Prime Minister under the present system where if you want to challenge the Prime Minister or the President of Umno, you need 30 per cent nominations from the branches. Ironically, you would probably be aware that this system was actually brought in by Dr Mahathir himself to protect himself from being challenged by other leaders when he was Prime Minister. So, I think the general consensus here in Malaysia is that it would not have been possible for him to challenge Badawi with this 30 per cent nomination rule and that the only way to get rid of Badawi is to enforce mass resignations from the grassroots of the party.

Following Dr Mahathir’s resignation, he also urged all Umno ministers and party leaders to also quit the party and return only when Abdullah steps down. Now, this as you said is targeted to enforce mass resignations from Umno. Do you think Mahathir has enough influence to stir such a flurry of resignations and how will it affect Abdullah Badawi’s position as Prime Minister and President of Umno?

JC : It really doesn’t matter, I mean the way Umno works is that the people who decide on the Prime Ministership is probably a group of less than 2500 people, basically we’re talking about the Umno divisional heads and the delegates to the Umno convention. So, I’m not sure even if you have mass resignations this will necessary mean that Badawi will have to step down. You might see a lot of people resigning en masse just to show their support for Mahathir, or the other way of reading is that to show their unhappiness with Badawi. But I’m saying that Badawi’s position may not be necessarily threatened by this mass resignations. Badawi will only be threatened if the divisional chiefs and the delegates are against him.

There’s been a lot of reaction from Mahathir’s sudden decision to leave Umno. While others say that this might actually cripple the party, former Deputy Prime Minister, Tun Musa Hitam has described that Mahathir’s resignation is good for Umno. He said that a thorn in the flesh has been removed from the party. Do you think that this is really beneficial to Umno?

JC : That really doesn’t apply because whether he is inside or outside Umno he can still attack the Pak Lah’s leadership and being the former President of Umno, of course whatever he says would carry a lot of weight. So I think the membership is really not that important.

So do you think he can do even more damage outside Umno?

JC : I’m not sure he can do even more damage. I think he has already damaged the government substantially. As you recalled, straight after the elections, it was very clear that one of the people that Umno blames for the poor showing of the Barisan Nasional was Mahathir himself. As you recall Mahathir actually told many people not to vote for Umno or Barisan Nasional before the elections.

Leader of the opposition Islamic party PAS, Nik Aziz Nik Mat said Mahathir’s departure is good for the opposition. It will motivate and strengthen the position of the opposition coalition parties. Do you think Mahathir will join the opposition now he is out of Umno?

JC : I doubt it very much. I’m quite certain that he will not join the opposition, and I think we have to accept the words that he used during his resignation, which is that he will stay out of party politics until Pak Lah is removed and he will re-join Umno then.

That was Professor James Chin, political analyst from Monash University, Malaysian campus speaking with Saifulbahri Ismail.

Malaysia’s Domestic Trade Minister Shahrir Samad said on Tuesday that no members of the ruling Umno party were resigning despite Dr Mahathir’s call for them to quit.